The following is based on nothing other than my casual observation…
Two things will happen between now and the 2012 elections. First, Republicans will most likely regain control of Congress in 2010, thus limiting Obama’s ability to push his agenda. Second, the stimulus, as horrible as it was, will start to visibly accomplishing things here and there (though it won’t accomplish enough to justify its price tag). Going into the 2012 election, we should be a couple of years removed from Obama forcing his agenda down our throats, and we should see a few stimulus programs come to fruition. Obama shouldn’t look as bad to independents and moderate Democrats 2 years from now.
Meanwhile, we will have a Republican primary. This primary will yield 3 types of candidates: a couple of true small government candidates, a few neocons, and a few neocons in Tea Party Clothing. Either a neocon or neocon in Tea Party Clothing will likely get the nomination. True small government advocates will see through this, and will not support the Republican Party in 2012. A third party candidate will become a real threat to steal Republican votes, and Republicans will vilify that candidate.
When we finally go to the polls, Obama won’t look as bad to independents and moderate Democrats, and the Republicans will have lost votes to a candidate who actually stands for what they pretend to stand for. Obama wins another term.
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