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http://abc.net.au/4corners/special_eds/20060710/default_full.htm
================================================================================ "All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident." Arthur Schopenhauer - German philosopher (1788 - 1860)
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Energy shortage fears are not new. One hundred-fifty years ago, forests were running out of wood to heat our homes and coal was discovered. One hundred-twenty five years ago, it was feared that civilization would go back to candles as our source of oil for lamps and plastics was becoming scarce -- the whale.

Luckily, petroleum was found in Pennsylvania. Again, as demand grew, the only known petroleum was in Pennsylvania. Fortunately, new sources were discovered in the mid-west US and then all over the world. Thirty years ago, world proven reserves were only about 50 years. Proven reserves now are about 100 years. The US has plenty of oil, if all the off limits areas were open. And this doesn't include shale oil, which is just becoming viable as an energy source as technology improves.

Hydrogen may prove to be a replacement. But, energy is needed to separate hydrogen from water. Nuclear energy is one possible provider with light water breeder reactors most practical. They don't leave a lot of radioactive waste and produce their own future fuel.

Fusion is probably the holy grail for energy. Sustainable fusion is now a matter of technology, not deep research science. Deuterium is the necessary fuel for fusion. A bit scare on the planet, but in abundance on the surface of the moon.

In short, the present isn't always a predictor of the future.

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